The pandemic-related collapse of international tourism could cost the global economy as much as $ 4 trillion in the years 2020 and 2021, according to a new UN report. The estimated losses are caused by the direct impact of Covid-19 on tourism as well as its ripple effects on other sectors closely linked to it. The steep decline in international arrivals led to a loss of $ 2.4 trillion in 2020, and the UN report warns that a similar loss may occur this year, with the recovery largely dependent on the adoption of global Covid-19. vaccines.
The report states that although tourism losses are declining in most developed countries, the situation is deteriorating in large parts of developing countries due to inequality in the vaccine. While the industry is expected to recover faster in countries with high vaccination rates such as France, Germany, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States, experts do not expect to return to international tourist levels before Covid-19 before 2023 or later.
The report bases its loss estimates for 2021 on three scenarios involving different declines in tourism arrivals as well as different vaccination rates. The most serious scenario involves a 75% reduction in tourism arrivals, which would lead to a loss of $ 2.4 trillion this year. It can prove devastating for a long list of tourism – dependent countries such as Turkey, where industry accounts for 5% of GDP.
The report predicts that the worst case scenario would lead to a fall of 33 billion. Dollars in tourism demand in Turkey with losses in related sectors such as food, beverages, retail, communications and transportation, leading to a decline of 93 billion. $ In production, three times initial shock. While the decline in tourism would result in a real GDP loss of approx. 9%, according to the report, it would in fact be partially offset by fiscal measures to stimulate the economy. Elsewhere on the list, Ecuador is also expected to be among the hardest hit countries under the most severe scenario with a GDP loss of 9%, while South Africa’s GDP could also contract by as much as 8%.
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